3 Things the Housing Market Is NOT About To Do (Despite What TikTok Uncle Bob Says)

by The Jones Team

If you’ve spent more than 7 minutes online lately, you’ve probably seen at least one dramatic headline screaming: “THE HOUSING MARKET IS ABOUT TO COLLAPSE!”

Meanwhile, another guy on YouTube is standing in front of a chart with red arrows predicting mortgage rates are headed back to 3%.

Spoiler alert: probably not.

There’s a LOT of noise floating around the housing market right now, and honestly? It’s making buyers and sellers feel like they need a PhD in economics just to decide whether they should move.

So let’s clear the air and talk about 3 things that are NOT expected to happen in today’s housing market — using actual data instead of doom-scroll panic.

According to a recent CNBC study, buyers are most concerned about:

Mortgage rates
Housing inventory
Home prices

And unfortunately, the internet has decided facts are optional. So let’s fix that.

🚫 Myth #1: Mortgage Rates Are About To Dramatically Drop

Listen… we would ALL love to see 3% mortgage rates again.

But wishing for it harder isn’t going to make it happen. That magical little pandemic-era unicorn has left the chat.

While rates have eased slightly recently, experts are still forecasting rates to stay mostly in the low 6% range throughout 2026. Forecasts cited in the report showed projections roughly between 5.7% and 6.2% by early 2027.

“Mortgage rates aren’t expected to change much over the next several quarters...”

Translation? Waiting around for some dramatic rate free-fall could leave buyers standing on the sidelines while prices and competition continue doing their thing.

And let’s be honest… if rates did suddenly plummet? Buyers would come charging back into the market like it’s Black Friday at Target. That means more competition and less negotiating power.

Fun times.

🚫 Myth #2: There Are WAY Too Many Homes For Sale

This one cracks me up because every other headline acts like the market is drowning in inventory.

Reality check: inventory may be UP compared to last year… but nationally it’s still nearly 14% lower than pre-pandemic normal levels from 2017–2019, according to Realtor.com data.

That means we are NOT sitting in some giant oversupply situation.

In fact, only 9 states currently have more inventory than pre-pandemic levels.

Why?

Because millions of homeowners are still sitting on ridiculously low mortgage rates from a few years ago and thinking:

“You’ll pry my 2.9% interest rate from my cold dead hands.”

Okay maybe not exactly that dramatic… but close.

That “lock-in effect” is still limiting inventory growth.

So yes, buyers have a few more choices than they did during the Hunger Games market of 2021. But no, we are not suddenly overflowing with homes.

🚫 Myth #3: Home Prices Are About To Crash

Ah yes. The favorite internet pastime: predicting a housing crash every single year until eventually someone is accidentally right in one random zip code.

Here’s what the data actually says:

Most markets are still seeing home prices rise — just at a more normal pace.

And even in areas seeing slight price declines, those drops are generally mild and nowhere near “2008 crash” territory.

Why prices aren’t collapsing:

Inventory is still below normal levels
Many homeowners aren’t selling
Sellers in some markets are pulling homes off the market instead of slashing prices

That’s called a market correction and moderation. Not a crash.

Big difference.

The market today is fundamentally different from 2008. Lending standards are tighter, homeowners have significantly more equity, and distressed inventory remains low.

So if you’re waiting for homes to suddenly become 40% cheaper overnight…

You may be waiting longer than the line at Costco on a Saturday.